Annual Report 2001 - 2002
India Meteorological Department
Advanced Technology Support
(a) Two Doppler Weather Radars, METEOR - 1500S,
have been procured from M/S Gematronik, Germany based on latest
state of the art, to replace existing S-band Cyclone Detection
Radars on the east coast. A Doppler Weather Radar has the
additional capability of measurement of winds associated with
tropical storm in addition to the measurement of cloud echoes
as done by a conventional non-Doppler radar. One Doppler Weather
Radar has already been installed at Chennai and the second
one is being installed at Kolkata.
(b) An indigenous Doppler Weather Radar is
under development under an MOU signed between IMD and Indian
Space Research Organization (ISRO). The test and evaluation
phase is complete and the radar will be installed in Sriharikota
by middle of 2002.
(c) Five sets of High Wind Speed Recorders
(HWSR) have been installed at Meteorological Offices Kavali
& Chennai on the East coast and Okha, Veraval and Mumbai
on the West coast.
(d) Wind Profiler/Radio Acoustic Sounding System,
developed by M/S SAMEER, Mumbai, was installed at the Pashan
Campus of IMD, Pune.
(e) Two sets of Distant Indicating Wind Equipment
(DIWE) instrument with digital display unit were fabricated
and supplied to Lakshadweep Development Corporation Limited,
Two additional sets of Dual Base Line Transmissometers
(METARS) procured from M/S VAISALA, Finland, were installed
and commissioned at Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose International
Airport, Kolkata, in June 2001, to meet the Runway Visual
Range (RVR) requirements of ILS Category II operation.
(a) Two Russian Seismographs have been procured
for installation at Delhi and Dehradun.
(b) V-SAT communication facility is being provided to 10 and
14 seismological observatories equipped with GSN and broad-band
seismograph system respectively.
(c) Thirteen seismological field stations and
Central Recording Station at IMD, HQ New Delhi have become
operational under the Delhi Telemetry System for near real-time
monitoring of seismicity in and around Delhi.
(d) Establishment of earthquake risk Evaluation
Centre (EREC) has been approved by the Expenditure Finance
Committee (EFC) in June 2001.
Satellite applications are being carried out
in various fields as follows:
- INSAT Meteorological Data Processing System (IMDPS)
- High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) Data Receiving
- Primary Data Utilization Station (PDUS)
- Meteorological Data Dissemination (MDD)
- Data Collection Platforms (DCP)
(a) A Plan Scheme entitled, "Upgradation/Expansion
of Computer System VAX-4000/300 of National Data Centre, Pune"
was taken up to make quick retrieval and supply of meteorological
data to the users.
(b) A new computer system (Dual CPU Origin-200)
was installed at New Delhi for running high resolution limited
area model for short range weather forecasting (cyclone track
and heavy rainfall) as a support to Regional Specialized Meteorological
Centre (RSMC) operation.
Modernised Telecommunication Facilities
(a) India Meteorological Department has further
modernized its National Meteorological Telecommunication Centre
(NMTC) with a new state-of-the-art switching computer which
has capabilities comparable with any advanced WMO (World Meteorological
Organization) Centres on the GTS (Global Telecommunication
system). The system has many advanced facilities like handling
VSAT links, Dial-up Telex, handling Metfax, Auto fax in, Auto
Fax out facility, Data Modem-in, Data Modem-out, exchange
of T4 fax and handling sea area bulletins (under Global Maritime
Distress & Safety System) broadcast system.
(b) Three International Circuits have been commissioned
for speedier collection/ exchange of meteorological data,
viz., Delhi-Beijing (96k bps), New Delhi-Melbourne (via INTERNET)
and New Delhi-Muscat (via INTERNET). For the first time, IMD
has utilized INTERNET for setting up GTS links.
(c) The website of IMD's HQ, New Delhi (www.imd.gov.in)
contains dynamically updated information on all India weather
and forecasts, special monsoon report, INSAT satellite cloud
pictures updated every three hours, Limited Area Model (LAM)
generated products and prognostic charts, special weather
warnings, tropical cyclone information and warnings, including
tracks predicted by the newly developed dynamical model, weekly
and monthly rainfall distribution maps, earthquake reports
etc. This also contains a lot of static information including
temperature and rainfall normals over the country and a brief
overview of the activities and services rendered by India
Meteorological Department. In addition, IMD's websites are
operational at the Regional Meteorological Centres, Chennai,
Kolkata, Mumbai and the Positional Astronomy Centre, Kolkata
and the Meteorological Offices at Pune.
(d) For public information and awareness, an
interactive Voice Response System (IVRS), popularly known
as 'weather on telephone', was started by the NMTC, which
provides weather information for 37 Indian cities. One can
access current weather and forecast for major Indian cities
by dialing a convenient 4-digit telephone number 1717. This
is the easiest way for a common man to know the weather of
a place of his choice at the cost of one local call. Similar
systems are being introduced in other three Metros at Mumbai,
Chennai and Kolkata.
(e) Six more Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSATs)
have been added to the IMD's telecommunication network in
March 2001 linking important Seismic Observatories, ACWCs,
CWCs, CDRs and the Weather Forecasting Office, Pune with the
Telecommunication Division at New Delhi.
Basic Research Projects
Long Range Forecast
(a) Research work on development/refinement
of Long Range Forecast models was carried out as follows:
- The power regression models for Long Range Forecast of
monsoon rainfall over three homogeneous regions of India
(North-West, North-East and Peninsular India) were modified/refined
by replacing few predictors by new ones;
- The Experimental Models based on Dynamic Stochastic Transfer,
Neural Network and Principal Component Regression were also
Cyclone Track Prediction Model
A new quasi-Lagrangian dynamical model for cyclonic
track prediction based on NCEP Washington hurricane model
is operational in IMD. The model was used for forecast of
movement of cyclonic storms in the Indian seas in operational
situations to provide numerical guidance to synoptic forecasters.
Work is in progress to improve the model performance and extend
forecast validity upto 72 hours.
Storm Surge Model
A Storm Surge Model has been developed in collaboration
with the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Delhi. Work
is in progress to run the model in real-time monitoring cyclone
Under the Mountain Meteorology project, now
renamed as Project PARWAT, upper air stations at Manali (HP)
and Jammu were made operational. The analysed weather charts/bulletins
are being sent to the Mountain Meteorological Centre, Srinagar.
The project is aimed to provide weather and avalanche forecasting.
After the occurrence of devastating earthquake
in Bhuj on 26 January, 2001, seismicity survey is being conducted
in the affected areas. The Expert Committee has submitted
a preliminary report on Bhuj earthquake.
On-Going Research Work
The Seismology Division is maintaining 45 National,
9 river valley projects and 3 special purpose seismological
observatories to monitor the seismicity around the Dams.
- Agrometeorological Division at Pune has undertaken a
study of interrelation between crop pests and diseases and
concurrent weather factors in collaboration with Agricultural
Universities and Research Institutes with a view to forewarn
their outbreaks, on the basis of weather-based models.
- Ground based remote sensing techniques using ground truth
radiometer, are being carried out for wheat and maize crops
on experimental basis. A number of collaborative projects
have been undertaken with Agricultural Institutes of the
country for studying crop-weather relationship.
- Imperial statistical models have been developed using
multiple correlation and regression technique to forecast
crop yields on operational basis for 26 sub-divisions growing
Kharif Rice and for 16 sub-divisions growing Wheat. Based
on these models, pre-harvest monthly crop yield forecast
for Kharif rice are being prepared for 15 States and total
rice production for the country as a whole from August to
December as well as for wheat for 12 States and total wheat
production for the country as a whole from January to May.
Air Pollution Monitoring
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) commenced
a Background Air Pollution Monitoring Network 'BAPMoN' Programme
in 1972 (and under Global Atmosphere Watch GAW since 1989).
India maintains a network of ten regional BAPMoN stations
to monitor (i) Prediction Chemistry, and (ii) Atmospheric
Turbidity, on long term basis, and (iii) Total Suspended Particulate
Matter at Jodhpur. Environmental appraisal was undertaken
of a number of industrial and power projects and manning proposals
of the Ministry of Environment and Forests.
Antarctica Scientific Programme
IMD team members of the 20th Indian Scientific
Expedition to Antarctica are wintering at Maitri since December
2000 in order to carry out the on-going Meteorological Programme.
Brewer Spectrophotometer has been installed for the measurement
of total ozone, NO2, and SO2 at Maitri, Antarctica.
Ocean Research Cruise
IMD participated in three ORV Sagar Kanya research
Cruises under the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) programme.
IMD Grant-in-Aid Prigrammes
- India Meteorological Department is providing financial
support for some selected research projects to Research
Institutes/Universities/Societies for encouraging the young
scientists to take up research work in the field of Meteorology
and Atmospheric Sciences.
- A contribution of Rs.40,000/- was granted to the Indian
Meteorological Society (IMS) for the International Conference
on "Forecasting Monsoons from Days to Years",
during 19-26 March 2001 at New Delhi.
- IMS New Delhi is also being funded for publication of
its periodical research journal, 'Vayu Mandal'.
Meteorological Data Supply
- Meteorological observations recorded by the observatories
all over India are scrutinized, processed and archived by
National Data Centre (NDC), Pune and used for various purposes
like construction, transport, irrigation, agriculture, industry,
aviation, development schemes, public safety measures, railways,
research etc., by various Governmental and private agencies.
The Meteorological data are also exchanged internationally
as per WMO commitment.
- NDC, Pune also supplies various types of meteorological
data demanded by the users in India and abroad. About 132
lakh records were retrieved and supplied to 150 users in
the year 2000-2001.
Climatic Diagnostic Bulletins of India were
published for the months of January to August 2001 and for
the post-monsoon season (October-December) 2000, winter season
(January-February) 2001 and for pre-monsoon season (March-May)
- Technical assistance is rendered to various Agricultural
Departments, Agricultural Universities, Research Institutes
for installation of soil moisture and ET observatories and
their establishment, logistics, maintenance, inspection
and smooth running.
o Processed Agro-Climatic data are supplied to end users
like Ministry of Agriculture,
- tate Department of Agriculture, Scientists of Agricultural
Universities/Institutes for planning agricultural strategy
and research work.
- Development and manufacture of seismological instruments
and accessories is undertaken in the Departmental workshop.
Besides, catering to the needs of the National Observatories,
the Organization also makes a limited supply of seismological
instruments to other Institutions.
- The design seismic coefficients for large and small dams
are supplied to the project authorities.
(a) IMD received an
adhoc payment of Rs.12 crorees (Rupees Twelve Crores) only
from Airports Authority of India towards cost of meteorological
services rendered for aviation.
(b) An amount of Rs.8,50,000/-
was received from private agencies on account of the supply/repairs
of surface meteorological instruments by the Instruments Division,
(c) An amount of Rs.5,75,128/-
was collected towards the supply of above data by the National
Data Centre, Pune.
Technology Demonstration Projects Undertaken in the area of
(a) 250 Cyclone Warning Dissemination Systems
(CWDS) are operational for near real time dissemination of
cyclone warnings through satellite directly to the areas likely
to be affected. CWDS receivers, installed along both East
and West coasts of the country, help public in general and
the local administration during the cyclone season to take
preventive measures for disaster mitigation. A scheme to upgrade
existing CWDS technology, based on latest digital technology,
is also likely to be introduced soon.
(b) Area Cyclone Warning Centres provide cyclone
warning through INSAT.
(c) A Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC)
is also functioning at New Delhi to provide advisory information
on tropical cyclones.
Agricultural Forecast and Advisories
(a) Pre-harvest Crop Yield Forecast for Wheat
crop for 5 States for April and 2 States for May and total
Wheat production for the country as a whole were prepared
and issued for April and May 2001. Pre-harvest Crop Yield
Forecast for Kharif Rice for 15 States and total Rice production
for the country as a whole were prepared and issued for August
to November 2001.
(b) Agromet Advisory Services (AAS) bulletins
are prepared weekly/biweekly in consultation with State Agricultural
experts and various specialists for the benefit of farmers
at 17 Agromet centresd in the country. These advisories are
broadcast by AIR stations in the respective regions in regional
languages and also telecast wherever the facilities exist.
IMD continued its support to National Centre for Medium Range
Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), New Delhi for development of
its agro-meteorological advisory services in the country.
(c) Crop weather calendars for different crops
are prepared to use as a guiding tool for the preparation
of Farmers' Weather Bulletin issued daily by the different
meteorological centers of the country.
(d) Seven Pilot Balloon-cum-Micromet Observatories
are functioning in West Rajasthan and adjoining areas to study
the meteorological aspects about the movements of desert locust
swarms. Special forecast of rainfall and upper wind and also
locust sighting observations are taken in Rajasthan and adjoining
areas during swarm incidence for anti-locust operation to
be adopted by the Directorate of Plant Protection, Quarantine
& Storage (PPQA&S), Ministry of Agriculture, Government
IMD has been participating as one of the central
agencies for implementation of World Bank funded Hydrology
Project for enhancing the physical infrastructure of hydro-meteorological
Flood Meteorological Support
The Flood Meteorological Offices, located in
flood-prone areas, provide meteorological support to the Central
Flood Forecasting Divisions of Central Water Commission (CWC).
Under the District-wise Rainfall Monitoring
Scheme (DRMS), a network comprising large number of rainguage
stations is utilized for real-time monitoring of district-wise
daily rainfall and weekly rainfall bulletins are prepared
to depict district-wise and sub-divisional rainfall distribution.
Long Range Forecast
(a) For the last 14 years, long range forecast
of monsoon rainfall (June-September) have been issued using
parametric and Power Regression models. Other models based
on Dynamic Stochastic Transfer (DST), Multiple Regression,
Neural Network and Principal Component Regression also have
(b) Long Range Forecast (LRF) issued by IMD
based on Parametric and Power Regression Model, in May 2001
indicated normal monsoon for the year 2001 (Quantitatively
98% of LPA +4% EME). For the country as a whole, the total
rainfall during monsoon season (June-September) was 92% of
LPA making the year 14th normal monsoon year in succession.
(c) Forecast for homogeneous regions was 100%,
96% and 100% of LPA for NW, Peninsular and NE India respectively.
The rainfall realized during monsoon season (June-September)
was 93%, 90% and 94% of LPA respectively in respect of these
The Seismological Division undertakes research
in the fundamental and applied seismology. Special studies
are also conducted for important earthquakes occurring in
and near India. Use of Broad-band Digital data has improved
(a) International Conference on Forecasting
Monsoons from Days to Years was jointly organized by India
Meteorological Department (IMD) and Indian Meteorological
Society (IMS) followed by a WMO Workshop on Monsoon Studies
organized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and
IMD at New Delhi from 19th to 26th March, 2001. A large number
of delegates from India and abroad participated in this event.
Both the events were inaugurated by Shri Bachi Singh Rawat,
Hon'ble Minister of State for Science & Technology. Prof.
G.O.P. Obasi, Secretary General of WMO was the Chief Guest
at the first event.
(b) An International Conference on "Seismic
Hazard with particular reference to Bhuj Earthquake of January
26, 2001" was organized jointly by the Department of
Science & Technology and India Meteorological Department
during 3-5 October, 2001, at New Delhi.
Training in different disciplines, viz., general
meteorology, telecommunication, instruments, agricultural
meteorology, was imparted not only to the departmental officials,
but also to the officers of other state/central government
departments, Defence services and candidates from foreign
countries in the Asian region. The Central Training Institute
of IMD at Pune is designated as WMO Regional Meteorological
& Thematic Mapping Organisation
The NATMO is a subordinate office under the
administrative control of the Union Ministry of Science &
Technology (Department of Science & Technology), Government
of India. The Organisation is headed by a Director and assisted
by two Joint Directors, Eight Deputy Directors and one hundred
& sixty seven Group- 'A' and Group- 'B' Officers and Scientific,
Technical and Administrative Cadres. The Organisation has
a total sanctioned strength of 475 till dates which includes
a large number of qualified professional geographers and cartographers,
perhaps the largest number of under one roof anywhere in the
world. It is a permanent government organisation and premier
organisation in the country in the field of preparation of
- Compilation of the National Atlas of India in English
- Preparation of National Atlas Maps in regional languages.
- Preparation of thematic maps based on research studies
on environmental and associated aspects and their impact
on social and economic development.
- Any other work entrusted by the Central Government to
- Installation of Automated Mapping System for increasing
efficiency in Mapping.
- Geographical/Cartographical research and training.
Tergets & Achievement for the Year
|Name of the Programme
||Achievement for 2001-2002
as on 31-10-2001*
|1. Revision of Nationa
|2. Abridged Edition of
|3. Landuse Mapping
|4. Landform Mapping
|5 Socio-Economic Atlas
|6. District Planning
|7. N.R.D.M.S. Map
|8. Health Map
|9. Economic S & T
* The progress upto October, 2000 is mentioned.
The work is progressing as per schedule to meet the target
Achievements during the Year 2000-2001
The organisation opened stalls with sales provision
on NATMO Maps/Atlases in different exhibitions and Book Fairs
in the following places :
1. Surat, Gujarat
2. Benaras, U.P. (two different places)
3. Pune, Maharashtra
4- Kanpur, UP
5. Patna, Bihar
6. Jaipur, Rajasthan
7. Jamshedpur, Jharkhand
8 Guwahati, Assam
9. Lucknow, UP
10. Ranchi, Jharkhand
11. Bhubaneshwar, Orissa
12. Dehra Dun, Chhattisgarh
13. Delhi, Delhi (three different places)
14. Kolkata & Suburb (in 17 places)
NATMO officers and members of the staff at different
seminars held in different parts of the country and also in
the abroad during this period have presented altogether 10
NATMO DMS Building omplex
NATMO entered an agreement with M/S. WIPRO INFOTECH
Ltd. of Bangalore for the supply and installation of the Digital
Mapping and Geographical Information System in the NATMO Campus
at Salt Lake, Calcutta. Accordingly, a major portion of the
equipment has already been received by us and the installation
and functional training programme have started.
Revenue Generated during 2000-2001
- During the period from April, 2000 to March 2001 the
Organisation has generated a revenue of Rs.6,90,149/- (Rupees
six lakh ninety thousand one hundred & forty-nine) only
through selling of various maps, atlases and monographs.
- NATMO has earned Rs.82,850/- (Rupees eighty two thousand
eight hundred & fifty) as course fee for different Training
Courses held during this period.
Revenue(civil deposits) generated through
- Project between NATMO & CPCB for mapping of ESZIS
Maps of different states of India Rs. 16.8 lakhs (Rs. 8.00
lakh in 1998-99) + (Rs. 6.00 lakh in 1999-2000) + (Rs.2.81
lakh in 2000-2001).
- Project between NATMO & CPCB for compilation of Environmental
Atlas of India - Rs. 6.00 lakh (Rs.2.00 lakh in 1998-99)
+ (Rs. 4.00 lakh in 1999-2000)
- Project between NATMO & National Commission of Integrated
Water Resources Development Plan for compilation of Integrated
Water Resources Development Atlas - Rs.32.00 lakh (Rs.20.00
lakh in 1999-2000) + (Rs.12.00 lakh in 2000-2001)
- Project between NATMO & Department of Panchayat &
Rural Development, Govt. of West Bengal for compilation
and printing of entire Block Maps of West Bengal - Rs.85.25
lakhs (Rs. 25.00 lakh in 1997-98) + (Rs.60.25 lakh in 1999-2000)
- Project between NATMO & CSRE, IIT, Mumbai for preparation
of Planning Atlas of Kheda and Anand District, Gujarat -
Rs. 7.00 lakh (Rs.5.00 lakh in 1996-97) + (Rs. 2.00 lakh
- Project between NATMO & CSRE, IIT, Mumbai for preparation
of Resource Profile for Bankura and Kolar District - Rs.12.00
lakh (Rs.5.00 lakh in 1997-98) + (Rs.7.00 lakh in 1998-99)
- Project between NATMO & West Bengal Industrial Development
Corporation of India for compilation of Industrial Map of
West Bengal; Digital mapping - Rs.1.25 lakh (Rs.0.6 lakh
in 1998-99) + (Rs.0.65 lakh in 1999-2000)
- Project between NATMO & Development of Forest, Govt.
of West Bengal for Jaldapara Wildlife Sanctuary, Scanning,
Digitization and Creation of GIS Base - Rs.1.70 lakh (Rs.1.00
lakh in 1999-2000) + Rs.0.7 lakh in 2000-2001)
- Scanning of Forest Maps of West Bengal - A joint venture
between NATMO and Forest Department, Govt. of West Bengal
- Rs.0.5 lakh in 1999-2000 and Rs.0.25 lakh in 2000-2001
- Scanning and Digitization and Keyiing-in-information
of 856 Smart Maps of Kolkata City - A joint Project of CMC
and NATMO - Rs.17.73 lakh (Rs.10.10 lakh in 1996-97) + (Rs.5.00
lakh in 1998-99) + (Rs.2.63 lakh in 2000-2001) + (Rs.1.20
lakh in 2000-2001)
- DST-UNDP/NRDMS Project - Rs.1.75 lakh (in 2000-2001)
- Macmillan School Atlas Project - Rs.2.00 lakh (2000-2001)
- z Vectorisation of Map by GIS for outside Agency - Rs.0.20
For Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)
- A high-end super computer CRAY SV-1 with 24 processors
was installed at the center. This will enable running of
higher resolution models and improve the quality and range
- Experimental production and supply of high resolution
forecast charts to various users using T170/L28 global spectral
model on routine basis started.
- Special Event Weather Forecasts
- Special forecasts were prepared for the Army expedition
to Mount Everest during May 2001. The forecast from
the center were found most accurate as compared to forecast
received from other sources.
- Special forecast was provided for the Amarnath Yatra.
- Special forecast were provided to SHAR/ISRO for launch
of satellites GSLV-D1/GSAT and PSLV-C3/TES.
- For experimental 'Ocean State Forecasting' wind and
fluxes were provided from NCMRWF analysis/forecast system
to various national participating institutes of the
country on real time basis from April to July 2001.
- New demands of forecast came from 'Drought Monitoring
Center - Nairobi, Kenya Meteorological Department, Qatar
aviation department and Central Water Commission, India.
Separate forecasts for respective geographical regions are
prepared and put in the center's web site
- The temporal range of the forecasts issued for agro advisory
services given to 81 agro-met field units for different
agro-climatic zones was increased from 3 to 4 days from
- The NCMRWF was listed as an emerging special center by
'World Meteorological Organisation'.
- NCMRWF was identified as a nodal point for executing the
activities on 'Weather and Climate Modeling' for 'Indo-US
S & T Forum'.
- A joint Indo-US workshop for identifying the possible
topics of collaboration in the theme 'Weather and Climate
Modeling' was organized under the aegis of 'Indo-US Science
and Technology Forum' during 7-8 December 2002.
- Development of operational and regional scale numerical
weather prediction (NWP) models for forecasting weather
in medium range (3-10 days) time scale taking full advantage
of existing and concurrent developments both in India and
abroad in the field of atmospheric science
- Establish the state-of-the-art supercomputing infrastructure
to develop suitable NWP models to issue medium range weather
- Set-up 127 'Agro meteorological Advisory Service' (AAS)
units, each unit representing one of the 127 agro climatic
zones spread all over India, to prepare/issue/disseminate
and to receive user feedback as well
- Set-up satellite based V-SAT Network for enabling stable/fast
dedicated communication with AAS units
India has an agro-based economy with major contribution
to gross national product (GNP) coming from agriculture. Agriculture
is heavily weather dependent, especially in a tropical monsoon
country like India. Farming community needs timely information
on weather, in the form of location specific weather forecasts
to take suitable actions to optimise the agricultural production.
Further, India is one of the few countries in the world severely
affected by disasters like cyclonic storms and droughts/floods
due to analogous weather patterns. With the availability of
high performance super computers, deterministic numerical
high resolution global forecast models, have proved to be
the viable tools for the production of weather forecasts in
the medium range time scale (3-10 days in advance) at NCMRWF
in real time, on regular basis. NCMRWF is working on continuous
development of 'Numerical Weather Prediction Models' and is
providing meteorological forecasts for agro-advisory purposes
and also for other many special situations.
Forecasting by global model needs quality observations
to describe the initial state by the data assimilation procedure.
The global observing system is composed of a heterogeneous
array of surface (land and ship) and space based devices (satellites
and aircrafts). Several uncertainties do exist in the retrieval
of various products from the fields measured by the satellites.
At present, cloud tracked winds (CMVs) from geostationary
satellites (like INSAT, METEOSAT, GMS and GOES), temperature/moisture
profiles from polar orbital satellites of NOAA, USA are the
most widely used satellite derived products in NWP. Global
communication satellites transmit these data sets by collecting
from land based communication networks spread over various
countries and transmit the global observational data in real-time
to the global weather centers. This service is part of global
telecommunication system (GTS) of World Meteorological Organisation
(WMO). The quantum of data received through GTS at various
centers is limited to the bandwidth of the communication line
and is one of the major constraints involving the observational
data reception in the Indian context. As compared to other
centers, viz. in USA, Europe and Japan, only 50-60% of the
data quantum is received in India. A substantial amount of
non-GTS data is also acquired by FTP through Internet. For
improving the accuracy of the forecasts, multiple runs with
different initial conditions and different models are also
One of the major activities of the Centre is
the performance evaluation of the Global Data Assimilation-Forecast
System (GDAFS) during successive summer monsoon seasons. This
task is pursued thoroughly as the successful prediction of
various facets of the summer monsoon is the most challenging
task for any forecasting system which is highly sensitive
to various factors viz. model resolution, availability of
good quality initial observational data; intra-seasonal variability;
variability of various regional/global scale surface boundary
fields etc. The NWP system implemented on real-time at the
NCMRWF consists basically a complete suite of job sequences
made to run on main computing systems to produce weather forecasts
as per the user requirements. Various components of the system
are as follows:
- Scheme for generating Data Base of decoded meteorological
- Quality control and pre-processing of decoded meteorological
- Data Assimilation (run intermittently at 6-hrly cycles)
- Forecast Model [global spectral model with triangular
truncation of 80 Waves in the
horizontal and 18 levels in the vertical(T80L18)]
- Scheme for generating data base of post-processed NWP
products (graphical and
digital output; verification and archiving)
- Statistical interpretation model for NWP output to obtain
location specific forecast for different agro-climatic zones.
Research and Development
- Seven days forecasts of flow patterns on experimental
basis were started since May 2001.Weekly cumulative rainfall
forecasts were also started along with this. The temporal
range of forecasts for agro-climatic zones were increased
to 4 days from June 2001.
- Additional charts like the monthly mean flow pattern
for different levels for Indian region, forecast of cloudiness,
weekly cumulative rainfall forecast, hemispheric 500 hPa
geopotential have been created for users in the NCMRWF web
page. An earth view version of the analysis and forecasts
are also created regularly for users in the centre's web
page. Similarly the analysis and forecast charts for the
regions Africa, Kenya and Qatar are generated for keeping
in web page in real time. The NCAR Graphics has been implemented
on the SGI, DEC and PARAM computer systems. Other graphics
tools like VIS5D and GMT were also tested and implemented
- SSM/I winds and moisture data have been introduced in
the operational analysis/forecast system since January 2001.
- The T80L18 based weather forecasting suite has been ported
on the new Cray SV1 system and the parallel runs on both
the DEC-Alpha and SV1 were carried out for a common period
for checking consistency of the products.
- A high resolution (T170L28) global analysis-forecast
system has been successfully developed and implemented on
the Cray SV1 system. The equivalent horizontal grid spacing
is about 75Km and there are 28 layers in the vertical. Several
test runs are being carried out. One-month long run was
made with this model (for July 2001) to examine the stability
of the model code. This model is being run everyday to produce
and evaluate experimental high-resolution forecasts. A corresponding
high-resolution data assimilation system was also developed
for use with the T170L28 model.
- For 'Ocean State Forecasting' (OSF) wind and several
other data were provided from the NCMRWF analysis and forecasts
to various participating institutes (e.g. SAC/ISRO, IITD,
NPOL) of the country via ftp server on real time basis for
running various ocean models in real time. The 'SATCORE/INDOMOD
Steering Committee' (meeting held at SAC/ISRO in October
2001) under the Chairmanship of Secretary DOD expressed
happiness on the successful completion of E-OSF and appreciated
NCMRWF's contributions to the same. The general consensus
in the review meeting was that NCMRWF analysed winds for
the E-OSF period compare well with Buoy & Satellite
derived winds and that NCMRWF forecast winds are usable
for ocean simulation.
- Software for decoding ATOVS data (ftp) from NOAA-15 &
16 satellites were developed and tested. Software for decoding
high resolution METEOSAT-5 water vapor wind data (GTS) for
the Indian region was also developed and tested. Software
for decoding 16 surface observations and one upper air observation
for the mountain region available under mountain meteorology
project were developed and implemented. Software to decode
meteorological data in BUFR format has also been developed
and tested. Special efforts were made to maximize the data
reception by utilizing leased Internet line and also by
making arrangement with major satellite data producers.
With these efforts reception of the said new data sets were
- Different types of digital filters were tested to represent
the orography in the T80 global model and a new suitable
orography for Indian domain was constructed, which indicated
improvement in model climate. Use of digital filter for
the humidity field was also tested and the impact was found
to be positive over the Western Ghats. Tests are being conducted
to study the impact in the medium range.
- A scheme was developed to apply radiation correction
to the radiosonde data. The scheme was tested on a sample
of data and it showed improvements in the forecasts. The
scheme is being tested on a larger sample of data before
its real-time utilization in the operational suite.
- Experiments with higher resolution (32km/38-Levels) workstation
version of meso-scale ETA model were carried out for different
regions and synoptic conditions. The model was run in real
time during April-May 2001 for the Mount Everest expedition
of Indian Army. Now this version of the model has been successfully
linked to NCMRWF analysis (initial condition) for forecasting.
- NCEP's ocean surface wave model (WAVEWATCH III) has been
successfully installed and tested using NCMRWF analysis
and forecast surface winds over Indian Ocean. This wave
model will be coupled to the atmosphere model to incorporate
the impact of surface roughness from these waves on atmospheric
conditions at lower levels.
- The regional analysis scheme for the regional spectral
model has been developed and tested for the Indian region.
Detailed tests are being carried out for monsoon 2001 months
to examine the impact as compared to usage of global analysis.
- To estimate the predictability of the T80 model in extended
range prediction over various regions of the earth, forecast
(of 122 days) have been made with five initial conditions
created by lagged average method. The results were analysed
to see how well the time series of anomaly correlations,
rmse and forecast spread agree with each other to make the
forecast meaningful. Monthly mean forecasts using the T80
global model were produced regularly and the skill was analysed.
- Analysed SST and sea ice are now regularly included in
the analysis forecast system. The parallel assimilation
started since 1st January 2001and the results were monitored
and analysed. Necessary software tools for the utilization
of real-time analysed global SSTs were implemented and the
system was made operational.
- MATCH-MPIC long-range transport model for gases is being
implemented and work on using it for forecast in real time
is underway. A radiation fog model has been installed. This
is being tested for onset and dissipation of fog especially
over the northwest part of the country. These two models
will be coupled to the global forecast model for real time
- Daily rainfall analysis for the Indian region was generated
by merging satellite and rain gauge data on regular basis.
Earlier, the first guess used in this analysis was taken
from INSAT QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimate) on
a 2.50 latitude and 2.50 longitude resolution. Now this
is available at 10 latitude and 10 longitude resolution.
Accordingly the first guess in rainfall analysis is brought
to the T80 model resolution by interpolation. The final
analysis is produced regularly at 1.50 X 1.50 resolution.
This analysis scheme is being made operational for model
verification purpose. GPI rainfall from METEOSAT-5 is being
tested for its possible utilization as a first guess in
this rainfall analysis over the Indian region, in near real
- A T80 based ensemble prediction system with 4 members
has been implemented and tested. Tests are underway for
8 members ensemble system. The generation of perturbations
is based on the breeding method.
- High resolution (75 km) MSMR/IRS-P4 wind and moisture
data were used in data assimilation experimentation and
compared with the 150 km resolution data study. The impact
of MSMR data on the analysis for full monsoon-2000 period
was studied. For the Orissa super cyclone 1999 case the
impact and sensitivity of MSMR, TRMM, SSM/I, QuickScat and
METEOSAT data were also studied. The study showed the usefulness
of the satellite data on the proper definition of the centre
and intensity of the cyclone.
- For the monsoon season of year 2000 observed daily rainfall
data for the state of Andhra Pradesh was used to create
the area weighted average on T80 model grid boxes. A comparison
of the model forecast and observations for the 18 grid boxes
were carried out. The results of quantitative verification
- Research is being carried out by accounting for the low
wind speed conditions over the land and ocean and assessing
the impact of different roughness lengths for heat and momentum.
- The MM5 model has been tested on different machines at
NCMRWF, which includes DEC-Alpha, PARAM, SGI and CRAY-SV1.
At present the model is being run on experimental basis
at double nesting with outer domain having 90 km resolutions
covering approximately from 40 E to 120 E and 10 S to 50
N and the inner domain at 30 km resolution covering approximately
from 65 E to 100 E and 5 N to 45 N. Twenty three levels
have been kept in the vertical.. The MM5 outputs are being
visualized using the NCAR graphics software. This version
of MM5 was tested with NCMRWF analysis (initial condition)
- Impacts of the anomalous SSTs over the Bay of Bengal
on the Indian monsoon simulations have been examined using
the NCMRWF global model. Seasonal simulations of the Indian
summer monsoon was carried out using the observed daily
varying SST data from TRMM and also using weekly NCEP SST
data. The study highlighted the importance of daily-observed
SST on the intra-seasonal variability of the monsoon.
- Real-time numerical experimentation involving the very
high resolution CMVs derived from the major geostationary
meteorological satellites were carried and the incorporation
of these data was found to be quite beneficial not only
in improving the representation of wind flow in global forecasts,
(example, the low tropospheric cross-equatorial flow over
the Indian Ocean) but even rainfall forecasts also. Efforts
are currently on to implement the utilisation of these additional
CMVs in GDAFS on real-time basis.
- Experiments were carried out with the T80 model of NCMRWF
using different convection parameterization schemes namely,
the Simplified Arakawa-Schubert scheme (SAS), the Relaxed
Arakawa-Schubert Scheme (RAS) and the Kuo-type cumulus parameterization
scheme (KUO). Rainfall simulation and prediction from the
SAS scheme was found to be the best at this resolution.
This scheme is being made operational.
- Experiments on tropical cyclone analysis and forecast
were conducted using special LASE moisture profile data
from LIDAR and also wind, temperature, moisture data from
Dropsonde. For selected cases during 1998, the SSI analysis
system was used at T126/L14 resolution. The reanalysis by
inclusion of the above special data measured by CAMEX-3
aircrafts indicated improved representation of moisture
and winds in the analysis and the corresponding predicted
intensity and track of cyclones also showed improvement.
- Shortwave radiation parameterization scheme of Harshvardhan
(NASA) was implemented in the operational T80/L18 global
model. Experiments with new radiation scheme were performed
for 30 days of August -1999. Different performance evaluation
measures like systematic errors, root mean square error(RMSE),
anomaly correlation of wind, temperature and geopotential
height were computed up to 120 hr. forecast. Significant
improvement was seen in the temperature and geopotential
fields. Mean monthly global and regional energy budgets
were also computed using the same set of forecasts. Positive
impact of the new scheme was also seen in the rainfall prediction.
Experiments are being carried out to select the appropriate
surface emissivity values for land and ocean for radiation
computations in the model. Three different types of dust
aerosols are incorporated and tested in the 1-D as well
as in the full global model. Performance evaluation studies
are being carried out to explore the possibility of operationalisation
of this scheme.
- A three days familiarization program on NWP products
and systems of centre was organized at NCMRWF during 18-20
December 2001. Officers from Indian Navy and SASE, associated
with day-to-day meteorological and oceanographic forecasting
in the field operations attended the training. Lecture notes
covering 17 different topics were prepared and distributed
during the training.
The main function of the application division
is to provide medium range weather forecast to the Agromet
Advisory Service (AAS) units for preparation of weather based
farm advisories that are disseminated by mass media for use
by the farming community. Another major function is coordinating
the activities of the AAS network in the country.
Currently the forecast is being issued in the
medium range on a bi-weekly basis to 81 units in different
agro-climatic zones. For obtaining the location specific forecast,
appropriate models by statistical interpretation of NWP output
are developed. In addition direct model output is also obtained
at the specific locations by interpolation. These two forecasts
and the synoptic skill are used for preparation of station
specific forecast. These forecasts are disseminated through
phone, fax and VSAT to the AAS units. These units issue agro
advisories to the farmers which include advises for crop production
strategies like ploughing, sowing, pest and disease management,
harvesting, threshing and post harvest procedures to derive
maximum benefit of the benevolent weather and to mitigate
the impact of malevolent weather for enhanced agricultural
Coordinating with the AAS units include, establishment
of agro-meteorological advisory service units and providing
the necessary infrastructure to prepare and issue agro-advisories
for contingency crop practices for the farming community in
India, to carryout studies on crop weather relationships,
development of decision support system and to evaluate the
impact of weather conditions on pests and diseases.
Statistical Package for Software System
(SPSS) version 10.1 was procured at NCMRWF mainly to obtain
the categorical forecast for rainfall and also to improve
the skill of the location specific forecast by using better
Local weather Forecasting and Agromet Advisory
- Temporal range of daily location specific medium range
weather forecast disseminated to 81 AAS units was increased
from 3 days to 4 days in real time from April 2001.
- Weekly cumulative rainfall forecast is also being issued
to 81 AAS units from April 2001.
- One more AAS unit was opened at Allahabad Agricultural
Institute during the year, to make the total number of units
as 82. Another 19 units have been identified for opening.
- Currently the center issues weekly forecast (on every
Tuesday) to 81 AAS units out of which 47 units are given
forecast bi-weekly. 77 units issue agromet advisory bulletins
based on the 4-days forecast issued by NCMRWF. 75 stations
are equipped with VSAT communication system. 68 units are
disseminating their advisories to newspapers, 51 to All
India Radio and 18 units to Television in vernacular languages.
- Everest Expedition - NCMRWF issued special forecast on
clouds, precipitation, winds and temperature for the Indian
Army Mountaineering Expedition to the Mt. Everest during
5 May- 28 May 2001.The forecast was provided daily (3-4
days in advance) to the Army Adventure Wing, Army H.Q. as
well as directly to the team through satellite and telephone.
The team successfully completed their expedition. The team
found the NCMRWF forecast to be the most accurate, among
the forecast issued from all sources.
- Various procedures for obtaining location specific forecast
have been successfully ported and implemented on CRAY-SV1.
- A program to obtain bias free Direct Model Output (DMO)
for rainfall and temperature forecasts for 70 major cities
in India (capital and main cities) has been developed. The
bias free forecasts are expected to have desirable skill
and hence will be displayed on the web site of NCMRWF by
- Dataset for both observed and analyses (T-80) for the
years 1994-2000 have been obtained for monsoon season. Work
for other seasons is in progress. Based on this dataset
Perfect Prognostic Method (PPM) models will be re-developed
for 10 stations in monsoon season and for 5 stations in
winter. The forecasts from these models will be improved
by using advanced multivariate techniques.
- Collaborative programme with SAC Ahmedabad has been initiated
on use of remote sensing products in Agro-meteorological
- Agrinet Solution Ltd. an ancillary of United Phosphorous
Ltd. has requested NCMRWF for providing Agromet Advisory
Bulletins (AAB) issued by the AAS units for displaying the
same on their portals. To begin with, AAB's from 3 AAS units
are being supplied to them.
- The Xth Annual Review Meeting of AAS of NCMRWF during
17-19 October 2001 was held at Narendra Dev University of
Agriculture & Technology, Faizabad.
- Special weekly weather outlook continued to be provided
to the Crop Weather Watch Group of Ministry of Agriculture
on every Monday along with active participation of Centre's
- Crop models along with DSSAT software were installed
at few more AAS units at State Agriculture Universities.
Familiarization on CERES Wheat, CERES Rice, CROPGRO Soybean
and SPAW models and their database requirement were given
to the agricultural scientists from AAS units. By employing
medium range weather forecasts, these calibrated models
can be used to schedule irrigation and fertilizer application,
sowing and spraying etc.
- The medium range weather forecasts of upper air parameters
were provided to the SHAR center of ISRO during the month
of October 2001 for launch of PSLVC3/TES satellite.
Computer and Networking
The location specific medium range weather forecasting
based on deterministic numerical weather prediction technique
employing high-resolution global circulation models is a compute
intensive activity. It is, therefore, important for any operational
global NWP Centre to have the best possible computing resources
that it can afford. Installation of Cray X/MP-14 computer
system at the Centre was one of the major tasks when the Centre
was created in 1988. The Computer had one processor and 4MB
words (64-bit) of memory. Its configuration included 48 GB
of disk storage and facility to transfer data to cartridge
tapes for archival. While Cray was to serve as main number
crunching system for modeling activity, three VAX systems(2
x VAX8810 and VAX8250) were also installed to meet other computing
requirements related to decoding of data, graphics, software
development and to serve as gateway to Cray. These central
facilities were accessed by scientists using dumb terminals.
Black and white as well as colour printing /plotting facilities
were also provided in form of Calcomp, HP, and Versatec plotters.
The Centre has been enhancing its computing
resources regularly. The progress made during the current
year in respect of enhancing computing resources, communication
network resources, WEB page, and training are listed below:
- A 24-processor Cray SV1 system was installed in May 2001.
The configuration is: 8 GB main memory, 800 GB disk storage,
DLT and IBM3490 drives. Three single cpu ORIGIN200 systems
have also been installed to serve as front-end systems of
the Cray SV1 and to handle data base application. The front-ends
also have attached DLT, DAT and CDROM drives. The T80/L18
global model based end-to-end assimilation forecast system
has been ported on Cray SV1 system and is presently being
run in parallel with the suite on DEC-ALPHA system. The
plan is to start running operationally a forecast suite
based on a higher resolution global model(T170/L28) and
to ingest significantly greater volume of observational
data with an aim to increase range and accuracy of the forecasts.
- Total number of VSATS operating on the network has been
enhanced to 75. There are in all 81 AMFUs that are currently
functioning. A training on VSAT operations was organized
for AMFU nodal and technical officers. About 20 AMFUs participated.
A data base/software has been developed to monitor performance
of the VSAT network. An improvement in the performance of
the network over previous years has been achieved through
concerted efforts on monitoring and coordination with C-DOT.
An alternative solution based on internet was developed
and successfully tested.
- Data down loading using ftp from different sites increased
significantly during this period. There is a plan to enhance
the lease line capacity from 64 kbps to 2 mbps.
- New contracts for Facility Management and maintenance
of equipment were finalized through limited tender enquiry
as the Facility Management requirements as well as number
and type of equipment had significantly changed over a period
- A number of new products were added and content on the
indigenously developed WEB page was enriched. A machine
independent archival and retrieval system was developed
and implemented. Work on dynamic information server was
carried out in-house.
- Fifteen new desktops with specifications suitable for
scientific computing environment were added. A number of
printers were also added. The software on the desktops were
updated by procuring the latest updates. A statistical package
SPSS was also acquired. ORACLE8i RDBMS system has also been
- The Division accepted project trainees from reputed engineering
and computer science departments of universities and provides
them guidance and facilities for carrying out technical/research
projects. Five MCA students and 2 BIS students completed
training during the period.