Annual Report 2001 - 2002

Scientific Services

India Meteorological Department

Advanced Technology Support

Wind Measurement

(a) Two Doppler Weather Radars, METEOR - 1500S, have been procured from M/S Gematronik, Germany based on latest state of the art, to replace existing S-band Cyclone Detection Radars on the east coast. A Doppler Weather Radar has the additional capability of measurement of winds associated with tropical storm in addition to the measurement of cloud echoes as done by a conventional non-Doppler radar. One Doppler Weather Radar has already been installed at Chennai and the second one is being installed at Kolkata.

(b) An indigenous Doppler Weather Radar is under development under an MOU signed between IMD and Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO). The test and evaluation phase is complete and the radar will be installed in Sriharikota by middle of 2002.

(c) Five sets of High Wind Speed Recorders (HWSR) have been installed at Meteorological Offices Kavali & Chennai on the East coast and Okha, Veraval and Mumbai on the West coast.

(d) Wind Profiler/Radio Acoustic Sounding System, developed by M/S SAMEER, Mumbai, was installed at the Pashan Campus of IMD, Pune.

(e) Two sets of Distant Indicating Wind Equipment (DIWE) instrument with digital display unit were fabricated and supplied to Lakshadweep Development Corporation Limited, Kavaratti.

Aviation

Two additional sets of Dual Base Line Transmissometers (METARS) procured from M/S VAISALA, Finland, were installed and commissioned at Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose International Airport, Kolkata, in June 2001, to meet the Runway Visual Range (RVR) requirements of ILS Category II operation.

Earthquake Monitoring

(a) Two Russian Seismographs have been procured for installation at Delhi and Dehradun.
(b) V-SAT communication facility is being provided to 10 and 14 seismological observatories equipped with GSN and broad-band seismograph system respectively.

(c) Thirteen seismological field stations and Central Recording Station at IMD, HQ New Delhi have become operational under the Delhi Telemetry System for near real-time monitoring of seismicity in and around Delhi.

(d) Establishment of earthquake risk Evaluation Centre (EREC) has been approved by the Expenditure Finance Committee (EFC) in June 2001.

Satellite Applications

Satellite applications are being carried out in various fields as follows:

• INSAT Meteorological Data Processing System (IMDPS)
  
• High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) Data Receiving System
  
• Primary Data Utilization Station (PDUS)
  
• Meteorological Data Dissemination (MDD)
  
• Data Collection Platforms (DCP)

Computer Technology

(a) A Plan Scheme entitled, "Upgradation/Expansion of Computer System VAX-4000/300 of National Data Centre, Pune" was taken up to make quick retrieval and supply of meteorological data to the users.

(b) A new computer system (Dual CPU Origin-200) was installed at New Delhi for running high resolution limited area model for short range weather forecasting (cyclone track and heavy rainfall) as a support to Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) operation.

Modernised Telecommunication Facilities

(a) India Meteorological Department has further modernized its National Meteorological Telecommunication Centre (NMTC) with a new state-of-the-art switching computer which has capabilities comparable with any advanced WMO (World Meteorological Organization) Centres on the GTS (Global Telecommunication system). The system has many advanced facilities like handling VSAT links, Dial-up Telex, handling Metfax, Auto fax in, Auto Fax out facility, Data Modem-in, Data Modem-out, exchange of T4 fax and handling sea area bulletins (under Global Maritime Distress & Safety System) broadcast system.

(b) Three International Circuits have been commissioned for speedier collection/ exchange of meteorological data, viz., Delhi-Beijing (96k bps), New Delhi-Melbourne (via INTERNET) and New Delhi-Muscat (via INTERNET). For the first time, IMD has utilized INTERNET for setting up GTS links.

(c) The website of IMD's HQ, New Delhi (www.imd.gov.in) contains dynamically updated information on all India weather and forecasts, special monsoon report, INSAT satellite cloud pictures updated every three hours, Limited Area Model (LAM) generated products and prognostic charts, special weather warnings, tropical cyclone information and warnings, including tracks predicted by the newly developed dynamical model, weekly and monthly rainfall distribution maps, earthquake reports etc. This also contains a lot of static information including temperature and rainfall normals over the country and a brief overview of the activities and services rendered by India Meteorological Department. In addition, IMD's websites are operational at the Regional Meteorological Centres, Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai and the Positional Astronomy Centre, Kolkata and the Meteorological Offices at Pune.

(d) For public information and awareness, an interactive Voice Response System (IVRS), popularly known as 'weather on telephone', was started by the NMTC, which provides weather information for 37 Indian cities. One can access current weather and forecast for major Indian cities by dialing a convenient 4-digit telephone number 1717. This is the easiest way for a common man to know the weather of a place of his choice at the cost of one local call. Similar systems are being introduced in other three Metros at Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata.

(e) Six more Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSATs) have been added to the IMD's telecommunication network in March 2001 linking important Seismic Observatories, ACWCs, CWCs, CDRs and the Weather Forecasting Office, Pune with the Telecommunication Division at New Delhi.

Basic Research Projects

Long Range Forecast

(a) Research work on development/refinement of Long Range Forecast models was carried out as follows:

• The power regression models for Long Range Forecast of monsoon rainfall over three homogeneous regions of India (North-West, North-East and Peninsular India) were modified/refined by replacing few predictors by new ones;
  
• The Experimental Models based on Dynamic Stochastic Transfer, Neural Network and Principal Component Regression were also modified/refined.

Cyclone Track Prediction Model

A new quasi-Lagrangian dynamical model for cyclonic track prediction based on NCEP Washington hurricane model is operational in IMD. The model was used for forecast of movement of cyclonic storms in the Indian seas in operational situations to provide numerical guidance to synoptic forecasters. Work is in progress to improve the model performance and extend forecast validity upto 72 hours.

Storm Surge Model

A Storm Surge Model has been developed in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Delhi. Work is in progress to run the model in real-time monitoring cyclone period.

Project PARWAT

Under the Mountain Meteorology project, now renamed as Project PARWAT, upper air stations at Manali (HP) and Jammu were made operational. The analysed weather charts/bulletins are being sent to the Mountain Meteorological Centre, Srinagar. The project is aimed to provide weather and avalanche forecasting.

Seismicity Survey

After the occurrence of devastating earthquake in Bhuj on 26 January, 2001, seismicity survey is being conducted in the affected areas. The Expert Committee has submitted a preliminary report on Bhuj earthquake.

On-Going Research Work

Seismic Monitoring

The Seismology Division is maintaining 45 National, 9 river valley projects and 3 special purpose seismological observatories to monitor the seismicity around the Dams.

Agriculture-related Studies

• Agrometeorological Division at Pune has undertaken a study of interrelation between crop pests and diseases and concurrent weather factors in collaboration with Agricultural Universities and Research Institutes with a view to forewarn their outbreaks, on the basis of weather-based models.
  
• Ground based remote sensing techniques using ground truth radiometer, are being carried out for wheat and maize crops on experimental basis. A number of collaborative projects have been undertaken with Agricultural Institutes of the country for studying crop-weather relationship.
  
• Imperial statistical models have been developed using multiple correlation and regression technique to forecast crop yields on operational basis for 26 sub-divisions growing Kharif Rice and for 16 sub-divisions growing Wheat. Based on these models, pre-harvest monthly crop yield forecast for Kharif rice are being prepared for 15 States and total rice production for the country as a whole from August to December as well as for wheat for 12 States and total wheat production for the country as a whole from January to May.

Air Pollution Monitoring

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) commenced a Background Air Pollution Monitoring Network 'BAPMoN' Programme in 1972 (and under Global Atmosphere Watch GAW since 1989). India maintains a network of ten regional BAPMoN stations to monitor (i) Prediction Chemistry, and (ii) Atmospheric Turbidity, on long term basis, and (iii) Total Suspended Particulate Matter at Jodhpur. Environmental appraisal was undertaken of a number of industrial and power projects and manning proposals of the Ministry of Environment and Forests.

Antarctica Scientific Programme

IMD team members of the 20th Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica are wintering at Maitri since December 2000 in order to carry out the on-going Meteorological Programme. Brewer Spectrophotometer has been installed for the measurement of total ozone, NO2, and SO2 at Maitri, Antarctica.

Ocean Research Cruise

IMD participated in three ORV Sagar Kanya research Cruises under the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) programme.

IMD Grant-in-Aid Prigrammes

• India Meteorological Department is providing financial support for some selected research projects to Research Institutes/Universities/Societies for encouraging the young scientists to take up research work in the field of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences.
  
• A contribution of Rs.40,000/- was granted to the Indian Meteorological Society (IMS) for the International Conference on "Forecasting Monsoons from Days to Years", during 19-26 March 2001 at New Delhi.
  
• IMS New Delhi is also being funded for publication of its periodical research journal, 'Vayu Mandal'.

Technologies Transferred/Commercialised

Meteorological Data Supply

• Meteorological observations recorded by the observatories all over India are scrutinized, processed and archived by National Data Centre (NDC), Pune and used for various purposes like construction, transport, irrigation, agriculture, industry, aviation, development schemes, public safety measures, railways, research etc., by various Governmental and private agencies. The Meteorological data are also exchanged internationally as per WMO commitment.
• NDC, Pune also supplies various types of meteorological data demanded by the users in India and abroad. About 132 lakh records were retrieved and supplied to 150 users in the year 2000-2001.

Climate Studies

Climatic Diagnostic Bulletins of India were published for the months of January to August 2001 and for the post-monsoon season (October-December) 2000, winter season (January-February) 2001 and for pre-monsoon season (March-May) 2001.

Technical Assistance

• Technical assistance is rendered to various Agricultural Departments, Agricultural Universities, Research Institutes for installation of soil moisture and ET observatories and their establishment, logistics, maintenance, inspection and smooth running.
  o Processed Agro-Climatic data are supplied to end users like Ministry of Agriculture,
• tate Department of Agriculture, Scientists of Agricultural Universities/Institutes for planning agricultural strategy and research work.

Seismological Support

• Development and manufacture of seismological instruments and accessories is undertaken in the Departmental workshop. Besides, catering to the needs of the National Observatories, the Organization also makes a limited supply of seismological instruments to other Institutions.
  
• The design seismic coefficients for large and small dams are supplied to the project authorities.

Technologies Commercialised

(a) IMD received an adhoc payment of Rs.12 crorees (Rupees Twelve Crores) only from Airports Authority of India towards cost of meteorological services rendered for aviation.

(b) An amount of Rs.8,50,000/- was received from private agencies on account of the supply/repairs of surface meteorological instruments by the Instruments Division, Pune.

(c) An amount of Rs.5,75,128/- was collected towards the supply of above data by the National Data Centre, Pune.

Technology Demonstration Projects Undertaken in the area of Socio-Economic Development

Cyclone Warning

(a) 250 Cyclone Warning Dissemination Systems (CWDS) are operational for near real time dissemination of cyclone warnings through satellite directly to the areas likely to be affected. CWDS receivers, installed along both East and West coasts of the country, help public in general and the local administration during the cyclone season to take preventive measures for disaster mitigation. A scheme to upgrade existing CWDS technology, based on latest digital technology, is also likely to be introduced soon.

(b) Area Cyclone Warning Centres provide cyclone warning through INSAT.

(c) A Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC) is also functioning at New Delhi to provide advisory information on tropical cyclones.

Agricultural Forecast and Advisories

(a) Pre-harvest Crop Yield Forecast for Wheat crop for 5 States for April and 2 States for May and total Wheat production for the country as a whole were prepared and issued for April and May 2001. Pre-harvest Crop Yield Forecast for Kharif Rice for 15 States and total Rice production for the country as a whole were prepared and issued for August to November 2001.

(b) Agromet Advisory Services (AAS) bulletins are prepared weekly/biweekly in consultation with State Agricultural experts and various specialists for the benefit of farmers at 17 Agromet centresd in the country. These advisories are broadcast by AIR stations in the respective regions in regional languages and also telecast wherever the facilities exist. IMD continued its support to National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), New Delhi for development of its agro-meteorological advisory services in the country.

(c) Crop weather calendars for different crops are prepared to use as a guiding tool for the preparation of Farmers' Weather Bulletin issued daily by the different meteorological centers of the country.

(d) Seven Pilot Balloon-cum-Micromet Observatories are functioning in West Rajasthan and adjoining areas to study the meteorological aspects about the movements of desert locust swarms. Special forecast of rainfall and upper wind and also locust sighting observations are taken in Rajasthan and adjoining areas during swarm incidence for anti-locust operation to be adopted by the Directorate of Plant Protection, Quarantine & Storage (PPQA&S), Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

Hydrology Project

IMD has been participating as one of the central agencies for implementation of World Bank funded Hydrology Project for enhancing the physical infrastructure of hydro-meteorological activities.

Flood Meteorological Support

The Flood Meteorological Offices, located in flood-prone areas, provide meteorological support to the Central Flood Forecasting Divisions of Central Water Commission (CWC).

Rainfall Monitoring

Under the District-wise Rainfall Monitoring Scheme (DRMS), a network comprising large number of rainguage stations is utilized for real-time monitoring of district-wise daily rainfall and weekly rainfall bulletins are prepared to depict district-wise and sub-divisional rainfall distribution.

Research Highlights

Long Range Forecast

(a) For the last 14 years, long range forecast of monsoon rainfall (June-September) have been issued using parametric and Power Regression models. Other models based on Dynamic Stochastic Transfer (DST), Multiple Regression, Neural Network and Principal Component Regression also have been used.

(b) Long Range Forecast (LRF) issued by IMD based on Parametric and Power Regression Model, in May 2001 indicated normal monsoon for the year 2001 (Quantitatively 98% of LPA +4% EME). For the country as a whole, the total rainfall during monsoon season (June-September) was 92% of LPA making the year 14th normal monsoon year in succession.

(c) Forecast for homogeneous regions was 100%, 96% and 100% of LPA for NW, Peninsular and NE India respectively. The rainfall realized during monsoon season (June-September) was 93%, 90% and 94% of LPA respectively in respect of these regions.

Seismological Studies

The Seismological Division undertakes research in the fundamental and applied seismology. Special studies are also conducted for important earthquakes occurring in and near India. Use of Broad-band Digital data has improved such studies.

International Conferences

(a) International Conference on Forecasting Monsoons from Days to Years was jointly organized by India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Indian Meteorological Society (IMS) followed by a WMO Workshop on Monsoon Studies organized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and IMD at New Delhi from 19th to 26th March, 2001. A large number of delegates from India and abroad participated in this event. Both the events were inaugurated by Shri Bachi Singh Rawat, Hon'ble Minister of State for Science & Technology. Prof. G.O.P. Obasi, Secretary General of WMO was the Chief Guest at the first event.

(b) An International Conference on "Seismic Hazard with particular reference to Bhuj Earthquake of January 26, 2001" was organized jointly by the Department of Science & Technology and India Meteorological Department during 3-5 October, 2001, at New Delhi.

Training Programme

Training in different disciplines, viz., general meteorology, telecommunication, instruments, agricultural meteorology, was imparted not only to the departmental officials, but also to the officers of other state/central government departments, Defence services and candidates from foreign countries in the Asian region. The Central Training Institute of IMD at Pune is designated as WMO Regional Meteorological Training Centre. National Atlas & Thematic Mapping Organisation

The NATMO is a subordinate office under the administrative control of the Union Ministry of Science & Technology (Department of Science & Technology), Government of India. The Organisation is headed by a Director and assisted by two Joint Directors, Eight Deputy Directors and one hundred & sixty seven Group- 'A' and Group- 'B' Officers and Scientific, Technical and Administrative Cadres. The Organisation has a total sanctioned strength of 475 till dates which includes a large number of qualified professional geographers and cartographers, perhaps the largest number of under one roof anywhere in the world. It is a permanent government organisation and premier organisation in the country in the field of preparation of thematic maps.

Functions

• Compilation of the National Atlas of India in English & Hindi.
  
• Preparation of National Atlas Maps in regional languages.
  
• Preparation of thematic maps based on research studies on environmental and associated aspects and their impact on social and economic development.
  
• Any other work entrusted by the Central Government to NATMO.
  
• Installation of Automated Mapping System for increasing efficiency in Mapping.
  
• Geographical/Cartographical research and training.

Tergets & Achievement for the Year 2001-2002

* The progress upto October, 2000 is mentioned. The work is progressing as per schedule to meet the target dates.

Achievements during the Year 2000-2001

Exhibition

The organisation opened stalls with sales provision on NATMO Maps/Atlases in different exhibitions and Book Fairs in the following places :

1. Surat, Gujarat
2. Benaras, U.P. (two different places)
3. Pune, Maharashtra
4- Kanpur, UP
5. Patna, Bihar
6. Jaipur, Rajasthan
7. Jamshedpur, Jharkhand
8 Guwahati, Assam
9. Lucknow, UP
10. Ranchi, Jharkhand
11. Bhubaneshwar, Orissa
12. Dehra Dun, Chhattisgarh
13. Delhi, Delhi (three different places)
14. Kolkata & Suburb (in 17 places)

Scientific Papers

NATMO officers and members of the staff at different seminars held in different parts of the country and also in the abroad during this period have presented altogether 10 scientific papers.

NATMO DMS Building omplex

NATMO entered an agreement with M/S. WIPRO INFOTECH Ltd. of Bangalore for the supply and installation of the Digital Mapping and Geographical Information System in the NATMO Campus at Salt Lake, Calcutta. Accordingly, a major portion of the equipment has already been received by us and the installation and functional training programme have started.

Revenue Generated during 2000-2001

• During the period from April, 2000 to March 2001 the Organisation has generated a revenue of Rs.6,90,149/- (Rupees six lakh ninety thousand one hundred & forty-nine) only through selling of various maps, atlases and monographs.
  
• NATMO has earned Rs.82,850/- (Rupees eighty two thousand eight hundred & fifty) as course fee for different Training Courses held during this period.

Revenue(civil deposits) generated through extra-Departmental Projects

• Project between NATMO & CPCB for mapping of ESZIS Maps of different states of India Rs. 16.8 lakhs (Rs. 8.00 lakh in 1998-99) + (Rs. 6.00 lakh in 1999-2000) + (Rs.2.81 lakh in 2000-2001).
  
• Project between NATMO & CPCB for compilation of Environmental Atlas of India - Rs. 6.00 lakh (Rs.2.00 lakh in 1998-99) + (Rs. 4.00 lakh in 1999-2000)
  
• Project between NATMO & National Commission of Integrated Water Resources Development Plan for compilation of Integrated Water Resources Development Atlas - Rs.32.00 lakh (Rs.20.00 lakh in 1999-2000) + (Rs.12.00 lakh in 2000-2001)
  
• Project between NATMO & Department of Panchayat & Rural Development, Govt. of West Bengal for compilation and printing of entire Block Maps of West Bengal - Rs.85.25 lakhs (Rs. 25.00 lakh in 1997-98) + (Rs.60.25 lakh in 1999-2000)
  
• Project between NATMO & CSRE, IIT, Mumbai for preparation of Planning Atlas of Kheda and Anand District, Gujarat - Rs. 7.00 lakh (Rs.5.00 lakh in 1996-97) + (Rs. 2.00 lakh in 1997-98)
  
• Project between NATMO & CSRE, IIT, Mumbai for preparation of Resource Profile for Bankura and Kolar District - Rs.12.00 lakh (Rs.5.00 lakh in 1997-98) + (Rs.7.00 lakh in 1998-99)
  
• Project between NATMO & West Bengal Industrial Development Corporation of India for compilation of Industrial Map of West Bengal; Digital mapping - Rs.1.25 lakh (Rs.0.6 lakh in 1998-99) + (Rs.0.65 lakh in 1999-2000)
  
• Project between NATMO & Development of Forest, Govt. of West Bengal for Jaldapara Wildlife Sanctuary, Scanning, Digitization and Creation of GIS Base - Rs.1.70 lakh (Rs.1.00 lakh in 1999-2000) + Rs.0.7 lakh in 2000-2001)
  
• Scanning of Forest Maps of West Bengal - A joint venture between NATMO and Forest Department, Govt. of West Bengal - Rs.0.5 lakh in 1999-2000 and Rs.0.25 lakh in 2000-2001
  
• Scanning and Digitization and Keyiing-in-information of 856 Smart Maps of Kolkata City - A joint Project of CMC and NATMO - Rs.17.73 lakh (Rs.10.10 lakh in 1996-97) + (Rs.5.00 lakh in 1998-99) + (Rs.2.63 lakh in 2000-2001) + (Rs.1.20 lakh in 2000-2001)
• DST-UNDP/NRDMS Project - Rs.1.75 lakh (in 2000-2001)
  
• Macmillan School Atlas Project - Rs.2.00 lakh (2000-2001)
  
• z Vectorisation of Map by GIS for outside Agency - Rs.0.20 lakh (2000-2001)

Highlights

• A high-end super computer CRAY SV-1 with 24 processors was installed at the center. This will enable running of higher resolution models and improve the quality and range of forecasts.
• Experimental production and supply of high resolution forecast charts to various users using T170/L28 global spectral model on routine basis started.
• Special Event Weather Forecasts
  • Special forecasts were prepared for the Army expedition to Mount Everest during May 2001. The forecast from the center were found most accurate as compared to forecast received from other sources.
    
  • Special forecast was provided for the Amarnath Yatra.
    
  • Special forecast were provided to SHAR/ISRO for launch of satellites GSLV-D1/GSAT and PSLV-C3/TES.
    
  • For experimental 'Ocean State Forecasting' wind and fluxes were provided from NCMRWF analysis/forecast system to various national participating institutes of the country on real time basis from April to July 2001.
• New demands of forecast came from 'Drought Monitoring Center - Nairobi, Kenya Meteorological Department, Qatar aviation department and Central Water Commission, India. Separate forecasts for respective geographical regions are prepared and put in the center's web site
• The temporal range of the forecasts issued for agro advisory services given to 81 agro-met field units for different agro-climatic zones was increased from 3 to 4 days from June 2001.
• The NCMRWF was listed as an emerging special center by 'World Meteorological Organisation'.
• NCMRWF was identified as a nodal point for executing the activities on 'Weather and Climate Modeling' for 'Indo-US S & T Forum'.
• A joint Indo-US workshop for identifying the possible topics of collaboration in the theme 'Weather and Climate Modeling' was organized under the aegis of 'Indo-US Science and Technology Forum' during 7-8 December 2002.

Objectives

• Development of operational and regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for forecasting weather in medium range (3-10 days) time scale taking full advantage of existing and concurrent developments both in India and abroad in the field of atmospheric science
  
• Establish the state-of-the-art supercomputing infrastructure to develop suitable NWP models to issue medium range weather forecasts
  
• Set-up 127 'Agro meteorological Advisory Service' (AAS) units, each unit representing one of the 127 agro climatic zones spread all over India, to prepare/issue/disseminate and to receive user feedback as well
  
• Set-up satellite based V-SAT Network for enabling stable/fast dedicated communication with AAS units

Background

India has an agro-based economy with major contribution to gross national product (GNP) coming from agriculture. Agriculture is heavily weather dependent, especially in a tropical monsoon country like India. Farming community needs timely information on weather, in the form of location specific weather forecasts to take suitable actions to optimise the agricultural production. Further, India is one of the few countries in the world severely affected by disasters like cyclonic storms and droughts/floods due to analogous weather patterns. With the availability of high performance super computers, deterministic numerical high resolution global forecast models, have proved to be the viable tools for the production of weather forecasts in the medium range time scale (3-10 days in advance) at NCMRWF in real time, on regular basis. NCMRWF is working on continuous development of 'Numerical Weather Prediction Models' and is providing meteorological forecasts for agro-advisory purposes and also for other many special situations.

Forecasting by global model needs quality observations to describe the initial state by the data assimilation procedure. The global observing system is composed of a heterogeneous array of surface (land and ship) and space based devices (satellites and aircrafts). Several uncertainties do exist in the retrieval of various products from the fields measured by the satellites. At present, cloud tracked winds (CMVs) from geostationary satellites (like INSAT, METEOSAT, GMS and GOES), temperature/moisture profiles from polar orbital satellites of NOAA, USA are the most widely used satellite derived products in NWP. Global communication satellites transmit these data sets by collecting from land based communication networks spread over various countries and transmit the global observational data in real-time to the global weather centers. This service is part of global telecommunication system (GTS) of World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The quantum of data received through GTS at various centers is limited to the bandwidth of the communication line and is one of the major constraints involving the observational data reception in the Indian context. As compared to other centers, viz. in USA, Europe and Japan, only 50-60% of the data quantum is received in India. A substantial amount of non-GTS data is also acquired by FTP through Internet. For improving the accuracy of the forecasts, multiple runs with different initial conditions and different models are also required.

One of the major activities of the Centre is the performance evaluation of the Global Data Assimilation-Forecast System (GDAFS) during successive summer monsoon seasons. This task is pursued thoroughly as the successful prediction of various facets of the summer monsoon is the most challenging task for any forecasting system which is highly sensitive to various factors viz. model resolution, availability of good quality initial observational data; intra-seasonal variability; variability of various regional/global scale surface boundary fields etc. The NWP system implemented on real-time at the NCMRWF consists basically a complete suite of job sequences made to run on main computing systems to produce weather forecasts as per the user requirements. Various components of the system are as follows:

• Scheme for generating Data Base of decoded meteorological observations
  
• Quality control and pre-processing of decoded meteorological observations
  
• Data Assimilation (run intermittently at 6-hrly cycles)
  
• Forecast Model [global spectral model with triangular truncation of 80 Waves in the
  horizontal and 18 levels in the vertical(T80L18)]
  
• Scheme for generating data base of post-processed NWP products (graphical and
  digital output; verification and archiving)
  
• Statistical interpretation model for NWP output to obtain location specific forecast for different agro-climatic zones.

Research and Development

• Seven days forecasts of flow patterns on experimental basis were started since May 2001.Weekly cumulative rainfall forecasts were also started along with this. The temporal range of forecasts for agro-climatic zones were increased to 4 days from June 2001.
  
• Additional charts like the monthly mean flow pattern for different levels for Indian region, forecast of cloudiness, weekly cumulative rainfall forecast, hemispheric 500 hPa geopotential have been created for users in the NCMRWF web page. An earth view version of the analysis and forecasts are also created regularly for users in the centre's web page. Similarly the analysis and forecast charts for the regions Africa, Kenya and Qatar are generated for keeping in web page in real time. The NCAR Graphics has been implemented on the SGI, DEC and PARAM computer systems. Other graphics tools like VIS5D and GMT were also tested and implemented successfully.
• SSM/I winds and moisture data have been introduced in the operational analysis/forecast system since January 2001.
  
• The T80L18 based weather forecasting suite has been ported on the new Cray SV1 system and the parallel runs on both the DEC-Alpha and SV1 were carried out for a common period for checking consistency of the products.
  
• A high resolution (T170L28) global analysis-forecast system has been successfully developed and implemented on the Cray SV1 system. The equivalent horizontal grid spacing is about 75Km and there are 28 layers in the vertical. Several test runs are being carried out. One-month long run was made with this model (for July 2001) to examine the stability of the model code. This model is being run everyday to produce and evaluate experimental high-resolution forecasts. A corresponding high-resolution data assimilation system was also developed for use with the T170L28 model.
  
• For 'Ocean State Forecasting' (OSF) wind and several other data were provided from the NCMRWF analysis and forecasts to various participating institutes (e.g. SAC/ISRO, IITD, NPOL) of the country via ftp server on real time basis for running various ocean models in real time. The 'SATCORE/INDOMOD Steering Committee' (meeting held at SAC/ISRO in October 2001) under the Chairmanship of Secretary DOD expressed happiness on the successful completion of E-OSF and appreciated NCMRWF's contributions to the same. The general consensus in the review meeting was that NCMRWF analysed winds for the E-OSF period compare well with Buoy & Satellite derived winds and that NCMRWF forecast winds are usable for ocean simulation.
  
• Software for decoding ATOVS data (ftp) from NOAA-15 & 16 satellites were developed and tested. Software for decoding high resolution METEOSAT-5 water vapor wind data (GTS) for the Indian region was also developed and tested. Software for decoding 16 surface observations and one upper air observation for the mountain region available under mountain meteorology project were developed and implemented. Software to decode meteorological data in BUFR format has also been developed and tested. Special efforts were made to maximize the data reception by utilizing leased Internet line and also by making arrangement with major satellite data producers. With these efforts reception of the said new data sets were made operational.
  
• Different types of digital filters were tested to represent the orography in the T80 global model and a new suitable orography for Indian domain was constructed, which indicated improvement in model climate. Use of digital filter for the humidity field was also tested and the impact was found to be positive over the Western Ghats. Tests are being conducted to study the impact in the medium range.
  
• A scheme was developed to apply radiation correction to the radiosonde data. The scheme was tested on a sample of data and it showed improvements in the forecasts. The scheme is being tested on a larger sample of data before its real-time utilization in the operational suite.
• Experiments with higher resolution (32km/38-Levels) workstation version of meso-scale ETA model were carried out for different regions and synoptic conditions. The model was run in real time during April-May 2001 for the Mount Everest expedition of Indian Army. Now this version of the model has been successfully linked to NCMRWF analysis (initial condition) for forecasting.
  
• NCEP's ocean surface wave model (WAVEWATCH III) has been successfully installed and tested using NCMRWF analysis and forecast surface winds over Indian Ocean. This wave model will be coupled to the atmosphere model to incorporate the impact of surface roughness from these waves on atmospheric conditions at lower levels.
  
• The regional analysis scheme for the regional spectral model has been developed and tested for the Indian region. Detailed tests are being carried out for monsoon 2001 months to examine the impact as compared to usage of global analysis.
  
• To estimate the predictability of the T80 model in extended range prediction over various regions of the earth, forecast (of 122 days) have been made with five initial conditions created by lagged average method. The results were analysed to see how well the time series of anomaly correlations, rmse and forecast spread agree with each other to make the forecast meaningful. Monthly mean forecasts using the T80 global model were produced regularly and the skill was analysed.
  
• Analysed SST and sea ice are now regularly included in the analysis forecast system. The parallel assimilation started since 1st January 2001and the results were monitored and analysed. Necessary software tools for the utilization of real-time analysed global SSTs were implemented and the system was made operational.
  
• MATCH-MPIC long-range transport model for gases is being implemented and work on using it for forecast in real time is underway. A radiation fog model has been installed. This is being tested for onset and dissipation of fog especially over the northwest part of the country. These two models will be coupled to the global forecast model for real time application.
  
• Daily rainfall analysis for the Indian region was generated by merging satellite and rain gauge data on regular basis. Earlier, the first guess used in this analysis was taken from INSAT QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimate) on a 2.50 latitude and 2.50 longitude resolution. Now this is available at 10 latitude and 10 longitude resolution. Accordingly the first guess in rainfall analysis is brought to the T80 model resolution by interpolation. The final analysis is produced regularly at 1.50 X 1.50 resolution. This analysis scheme is being made operational for model verification purpose. GPI rainfall from METEOSAT-5 is being tested for its possible utilization as a first guess in this rainfall analysis over the Indian region, in near real time.
  
• A T80 based ensemble prediction system with 4 members has been implemented and tested. Tests are underway for 8 members ensemble system. The generation of perturbations is based on the breeding method.
  
• High resolution (75 km) MSMR/IRS-P4 wind and moisture data were used in data assimilation experimentation and compared with the 150 km resolution data study. The impact of MSMR data on the analysis for full monsoon-2000 period was studied. For the Orissa super cyclone 1999 case the impact and sensitivity of MSMR, TRMM, SSM/I, QuickScat and METEOSAT data were also studied. The study showed the usefulness of the satellite data on the proper definition of the centre and intensity of the cyclone.
  
• For the monsoon season of year 2000 observed daily rainfall data for the state of Andhra Pradesh was used to create the area weighted average on T80 model grid boxes. A comparison of the model forecast and observations for the 18 grid boxes were carried out. The results of quantitative verification were encouraging.
  
• Research is being carried out by accounting for the low wind speed conditions over the land and ocean and assessing the impact of different roughness lengths for heat and momentum.
  
• The MM5 model has been tested on different machines at NCMRWF, which includes DEC-Alpha, PARAM, SGI and CRAY-SV1. At present the model is being run on experimental basis at double nesting with outer domain having 90 km resolutions covering approximately from 40 E to 120 E and 10 S to 50 N and the inner domain at 30 km resolution covering approximately from 65 E to 100 E and 5 N to 45 N. Twenty three levels have been kept in the vertical.. The MM5 outputs are being visualized using the NCAR graphics software. This version of MM5 was tested with NCMRWF analysis (initial condition) successfully.
  
• Impacts of the anomalous SSTs over the Bay of Bengal on the Indian monsoon simulations have been examined using the NCMRWF global model. Seasonal simulations of the Indian summer monsoon was carried out using the observed daily varying SST data from TRMM and also using weekly NCEP SST data. The study highlighted the importance of daily-observed SST on the intra-seasonal variability of the monsoon.
  
• Real-time numerical experimentation involving the very high resolution CMVs derived from the major geostationary meteorological satellites were carried and the incorporation of these data was found to be quite beneficial not only in improving the representation of wind flow in global forecasts, (example, the low tropospheric cross-equatorial flow over the Indian Ocean) but even rainfall forecasts also. Efforts are currently on to implement the utilisation of these additional CMVs in GDAFS on real-time basis.
  
• Experiments were carried out with the T80 model of NCMRWF using different convection parameterization schemes namely, the Simplified Arakawa-Schubert scheme (SAS), the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme (RAS) and the Kuo-type cumulus parameterization scheme (KUO). Rainfall simulation and prediction from the SAS scheme was found to be the best at this resolution. This scheme is being made operational.
  
• Experiments on tropical cyclone analysis and forecast were conducted using special LASE moisture profile data from LIDAR and also wind, temperature, moisture data from Dropsonde. For selected cases during 1998, the SSI analysis system was used at T126/L14 resolution. The reanalysis by inclusion of the above special data measured by CAMEX-3 aircrafts indicated improved representation of moisture and winds in the analysis and the corresponding predicted intensity and track of cyclones also showed improvement.
• Shortwave radiation parameterization scheme of Harshvardhan (NASA) was implemented in the operational T80/L18 global model. Experiments with new radiation scheme were performed for 30 days of August -1999. Different performance evaluation measures like systematic errors, root mean square error(RMSE), anomaly correlation of wind, temperature and geopotential height were computed up to 120 hr. forecast. Significant improvement was seen in the temperature and geopotential fields. Mean monthly global and regional energy budgets were also computed using the same set of forecasts. Positive impact of the new scheme was also seen in the rainfall prediction. Experiments are being carried out to select the appropriate surface emissivity values for land and ocean for radiation computations in the model. Three different types of dust aerosols are incorporated and tested in the 1-D as well as in the full global model. Performance evaluation studies are being carried out to explore the possibility of operationalisation of this scheme.
  
• A three days familiarization program on NWP products and systems of centre was organized at NCMRWF during 18-20 December 2001. Officers from Indian Navy and SASE, associated with day-to-day meteorological and oceanographic forecasting in the field operations attended the training. Lecture notes covering 17 different topics were prepared and distributed during the training.

Application

The main function of the application division is to provide medium range weather forecast to the Agromet Advisory Service (AAS) units for preparation of weather based farm advisories that are disseminated by mass media for use by the farming community. Another major function is coordinating the activities of the AAS network in the country.

Currently the forecast is being issued in the medium range on a bi-weekly basis to 81 units in different agro-climatic zones. For obtaining the location specific forecast, appropriate models by statistical interpretation of NWP output are developed. In addition direct model output is also obtained at the specific locations by interpolation. These two forecasts and the synoptic skill are used for preparation of station specific forecast. These forecasts are disseminated through phone, fax and VSAT to the AAS units. These units issue agro advisories to the farmers which include advises for crop production strategies like ploughing, sowing, pest and disease management, harvesting, threshing and post harvest procedures to derive maximum benefit of the benevolent weather and to mitigate the impact of malevolent weather for enhanced agricultural production.

Coordinating with the AAS units include, establishment of agro-meteorological advisory service units and providing the necessary infrastructure to prepare and issue agro-advisories for contingency crop practices for the farming community in India, to carryout studies on crop weather relationships, development of decision support system and to evaluate the impact of weather conditions on pests and diseases.

Statistical Package for Software System (SPSS) version 10.1 was procured at NCMRWF mainly to obtain the categorical forecast for rainfall and also to improve the skill of the location specific forecast by using better statistical tools.

Local weather Forecasting and Agromet Advisory Service

• Temporal range of daily location specific medium range weather forecast disseminated to 81 AAS units was increased from 3 days to 4 days in real time from April 2001.
  
• Weekly cumulative rainfall forecast is also being issued to 81 AAS units from April 2001.
  
• One more AAS unit was opened at Allahabad Agricultural Institute during the year, to make the total number of units as 82. Another 19 units have been identified for opening.
  
• Currently the center issues weekly forecast (on every Tuesday) to 81 AAS units out of which 47 units are given forecast bi-weekly. 77 units issue agromet advisory bulletins based on the 4-days forecast issued by NCMRWF. 75 stations are equipped with VSAT communication system. 68 units are disseminating their advisories to newspapers, 51 to All India Radio and 18 units to Television in vernacular languages.
  
• Everest Expedition - NCMRWF issued special forecast on clouds, precipitation, winds and temperature for the Indian Army Mountaineering Expedition to the Mt. Everest during 5 May- 28 May 2001.The forecast was provided daily (3-4 days in advance) to the Army Adventure Wing, Army H.Q. as well as directly to the team through satellite and telephone. The team successfully completed their expedition. The team found the NCMRWF forecast to be the most accurate, among the forecast issued from all sources.
  
• Various procedures for obtaining location specific forecast have been successfully ported and implemented on CRAY-SV1.
  
• A program to obtain bias free Direct Model Output (DMO) for rainfall and temperature forecasts for 70 major cities in India (capital and main cities) has been developed. The bias free forecasts are expected to have desirable skill and hence will be displayed on the web site of NCMRWF by March 2002.
  
• Dataset for both observed and analyses (T-80) for the years 1994-2000 have been obtained for monsoon season. Work for other seasons is in progress. Based on this dataset Perfect Prognostic Method (PPM) models will be re-developed for 10 stations in monsoon season and for 5 stations in winter. The forecasts from these models will be improved by using advanced multivariate techniques.
  
• Collaborative programme with SAC Ahmedabad has been initiated on use of remote sensing products in Agro-meteorological Advisory Service.
  
• Agrinet Solution Ltd. an ancillary of United Phosphorous Ltd. has requested NCMRWF for providing Agromet Advisory Bulletins (AAB) issued by the AAS units for displaying the same on their portals. To begin with, AAB's from 3 AAS units are being supplied to them.
• The Xth Annual Review Meeting of AAS of NCMRWF during 17-19 October 2001 was held at Narendra Dev University of Agriculture & Technology, Faizabad.
  
• Special weekly weather outlook continued to be provided to the Crop Weather Watch Group of Ministry of Agriculture on every Monday along with active participation of Centre's representative.
  
• Crop models along with DSSAT software were installed at few more AAS units at State Agriculture Universities. Familiarization on CERES Wheat, CERES Rice, CROPGRO Soybean and SPAW models and their database requirement were given to the agricultural scientists from AAS units. By employing medium range weather forecasts, these calibrated models can be used to schedule irrigation and fertilizer application, sowing and spraying etc.
  
• The medium range weather forecasts of upper air parameters were provided to the SHAR center of ISRO during the month of October 2001 for launch of PSLVC3/TES satellite.

Computer and Networking

The location specific medium range weather forecasting based on deterministic numerical weather prediction technique employing high-resolution global circulation models is a compute intensive activity. It is, therefore, important for any operational global NWP Centre to have the best possible computing resources that it can afford. Installation of Cray X/MP-14 computer system at the Centre was one of the major tasks when the Centre was created in 1988. The Computer had one processor and 4MB words (64-bit) of memory. Its configuration included 48 GB of disk storage and facility to transfer data to cartridge tapes for archival. While Cray was to serve as main number crunching system for modeling activity, three VAX systems(2 x VAX8810 and VAX8250) were also installed to meet other computing requirements related to decoding of data, graphics, software development and to serve as gateway to Cray. These central facilities were accessed by scientists using dumb terminals. Black and white as well as colour printing /plotting facilities were also provided in form of Calcomp, HP, and Versatec plotters.

The Centre has been enhancing its computing resources regularly. The progress made during the current year in respect of enhancing computing resources, communication network resources, WEB page, and training are listed below:

• A 24-processor Cray SV1 system was installed in May 2001. The configuration is: 8 GB main memory, 800 GB disk storage, DLT and IBM3490 drives. Three single cpu ORIGIN200 systems have also been installed to serve as front-end systems of the Cray SV1 and to handle data base application. The front-ends also have attached DLT, DAT and CDROM drives. The T80/L18 global model based end-to-end assimilation forecast system has been ported on Cray SV1 system and is presently being run in parallel with the suite on DEC-ALPHA system. The plan is to start running operationally a forecast suite based on a higher resolution global model(T170/L28) and to ingest significantly greater volume of observational data with an aim to increase range and accuracy of the forecasts.
  
• Total number of VSATS operating on the network has been enhanced to 75. There are in all 81 AMFUs that are currently functioning. A training on VSAT operations was organized for AMFU nodal and technical officers. About 20 AMFUs participated. A data base/software has been developed to monitor performance of the VSAT network. An improvement in the performance of the network over previous years has been achieved through concerted efforts on monitoring and coordination with C-DOT. An alternative solution based on internet was developed and successfully tested.
  
• Data down loading using ftp from different sites increased significantly during this period. There is a plan to enhance the lease line capacity from 64 kbps to 2 mbps.
  
• New contracts for Facility Management and maintenance of equipment were finalized through limited tender enquiry as the Facility Management requirements as well as number and type of equipment had significantly changed over a period of time.
  
• A number of new products were added and content on the indigenously developed WEB page was enriched. A machine independent archival and retrieval system was developed and implemented. Work on dynamic information server was carried out in-house.
  
• Fifteen new desktops with specifications suitable for scientific computing environment were added. A number of printers were also added. The software on the desktops were updated by procuring the latest updates. A statistical package SPSS was also acquired. ORACLE8i RDBMS system has also been acquired.
  
• The Division accepted project trainees from reputed engineering and computer science departments of universities and provides them guidance and facilities for carrying out technical/research projects. Five MCA students and 2 BIS students completed training during the period.